The cryptocurrency market is buzzing with reactions to the upcoming U.S. presidential election, with the newest development being the assassination attempt on Donald Trump. Let’s break down what’s happening and how it’s impacting the crypto world.

Crypto Traders' Sentiment

This is, of course, a generalization, but it seems that crypto traders are increasingly putting their chips on a Trump victory.

 

The sentiment is evident in the performance of Trump-associated tokens and prediction markets:

 

  • MAGA Token: Saw a spike in value and trading volume, showing that investors are paying attention.
  • Polymarket: This crypto prediction platform has seen over $260 million in bets on the election outcome, with a strong tilt towards a Trump win.

 

Bitcoin also took a leap, hitting a two week high right after news broke that a shooter tried to kill Trump at a rally, an event that was perceived as boosting his chances of winning the presidency. 

 

In fact, prediction markets reported that Trump’s odds of victory shot up to 72% following the incident in Pennsylvania…

 

And the crypto market seems to have responded with a burst of excitement, but why?

Trump's Evolving Stance on Crypto

Crypto traders, in general, believe Trump’s leadership could create a more favorable environment for digital assets.

 

Trump’s view on cryptocurrencies has done a 180:

 

  • Once a critic, he’s now calling himself the ‘crypto president’.
  • His campaign started accepting crypto donations in May 2024.
  • He’s been talking with crypto-mining execs, signaling he’s open to the industry.

Market Reactions and Expert Opinions

The crypto market’s excitement following the boost in Trump’s electability isn’t limited to Bitcoin:

 

  • Stocks like Coinbase Global and miner Riot Platforms also saw gains.
  • Matthew Sigel from VanEck suggests that a Trump win could foster a more crypto-friendly environment.
  • An industry analyst comments, “Investors are betting on a positive impact from a Trump victory. This optimism is spreading to various crypto-related stocks”.

Potential Impacts

The election outcome could shake up crypto regulations: A Trump victory might lead to a more crypto-friendly SEC, potentially benefiting assets like Solana. A Democratic win could mean stricter regulations, dampening the prospects for certain crypto ETF approvals. There are some caveats, though… Some believe that stricter regulation, as predicted with Biden victory, will benefit the crypto markets because of increased stability and trust. Remember also, that while these market moves and predictions offer some insights, cryptocurrency markets are driven by many factors beyond U.S. politics. Investors should keep an eye on global economic conditions, technological advancements, and international regulatory changes as well. An expert notes, “Tokens linked to Trump might not be perfect predictors, but they do reflect the excitement of crypto traders towards a potential Trump win”. The crypto market is supercharged with sensitivity to the U.S. presidential race right now, with a Trump victory seen as a big win for the industry. However, the true impact of the election remains uncertain, and market participants should, as always, keep a balanced and unemotional view.
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Michael Hearne

Michael Hearne is the CEO of Decentral Publishing and the host of the Uncensored Crypto docuseries.