Most traders stare at charts, waiting for the next breakout or breakdown. They obsess over RSI, moving averages, and Fibonacci retracements—like ancient astrologers trying to predict the future by reading the stars.

But here’s the cold, hard truth:

Technical Analysis (TA) is a lagging indicator.

And the even colder, harder truth is this: Most technical traders lose to better traders.

By the time a pattern forms on a chart, the move has already happened. The real alpha—the edge that separates winners from losers—comes from leading indicators.

These indicators don’t just tell you what happened. They tell you what’s coming.

This is fundamental analysis vs technical analysis. And when the fundamentals are there, diamond hands trump paper hands 99 times out of 100.

Warren Buffett put it best:

“Only when the tide goes out do you discover who’s been swimming naked.”

Four Fundamental Leading Indicators

Crypto is an ocean of speculation, but when liquidity dries up, only fundamentally strong projects survive. That’s why we need to track:

✅ Where the best developers are building (GitHub, hackathons, VC funding)
✅ Where liquidity is flowing (Total Value Locked in DeFi)
✅ Which dApps are seeing real user growth (active wallets, contract interactions)
✅ Whether dApps are migrating to new chains (signaling shifting dominance)

This is a key part of fundamental analysis for crypto. 

And while it’s true that “the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent,” these indicators are still the best predictors of long-term success.

If you want to be ahead of the market, start watching where innovation, liquidity, and adoption are going before price moves.

Where the Best Developers Are Building (Innovation Signals Future Growth)

Crypto isn’t just about price speculation. The real long-term winners are the protocols and dApps being actively built, improved, and adopted.

Developers are the lifeblood of any blockchain ecosystem. The most talented builders don’t just follow hype—they migrate toward the most promising tech, best incentives, and most supportive communities. If you want to know which blockchains will thrive in the next cycle, look at where the best engineers are writing code today.

🔥 What to Watch

  • GitHub Repositories: More commits = more developer activity.
  • Hackathons & Grants: Solana Breakpoint, ETHGlobal, Polkadot Grants—where are the smartest builders innovating?
  • VC Funding & Ecosystem Support: Which projects are attracting serious venture capital and strategic partnerships?

🛠 How to Track It

  • GitHub Commits: Use CryptoMiso or Electric Capital’s Developer Report to track developer activity.
  • Hackathon Winners: Follow events like ETHGlobal, Solana Hackathons, and Avalanche Rush.
  • VC Funding: Keep an eye on firms like a16z Crypto, Paradigm, Sequoia, and Multicoin Capital—they’re betting on the next big thing.

👉 Why It Matters: A project with top-tier devs, active GitHub repos, and solid funding is far more likely to survive market cycles than a meme coin with hype but no innovation.

Where Liquidity is Flowing (TVL and DeFi Dominance)

Crypto markets are driven by liquidity. The more money locked in an ecosystem, the more sustainable its growth. While price speculation comes and goes, liquidity trends reveal which platforms are actually attracting capital—and more importantly, keeping it there.

In the last cycle, we saw Ethereum dominate DeFi, but then competitors like Binance Smart Chain, Solana, and Avalanche surged as new liquidity poured in. If you were tracking Total Value Locked (TVL) before the hype hit mainstream, you could have caught these trends early.

🔥 What to Watch

  • Total Value Locked (TVL): The best indicator of where capital is sitting in DeFi.
  • Stablecoin Flows: Where are USDT, USDC, and DAI moving?
  • Yield Farming & APYs: High yields attract capital, but sustainable yields keep it there.

🛠 How to Track It

  • DeFi TVL: Use DeFiLlama to see where the biggest liquidity pools are.
  • Stablecoin Supply & Flows: Check Etherscan, TronScan, and SolanaFM to track stablecoin minting and burning.
  • APYs & Borrowing Rates: Monitor lending rates on Aave, Compound, and MakerDAO—high demand means capital inflows.

👉 Why It Matters: Liquidity is the lifeblood of crypto. If capital is flooding into a project, it’s a sign of confidence. If it’s leaving, the tide might be going out—and you don’t want to be caught swimming naked.

Which dApps Are Seeing Real User Growth (Adoption Signals Demand)

A project can have all the hype in the world, but if nobody is actually using it, it’s worthless.

Real adoption isn’t measured by social media engagement or marketing spend—it’s seen in on-chain activity. Active wallets, daily transactions, and network congestion tell the true story of whether a dApp is gaining real traction or just riding a temporary wave of speculation.

🔥 What to Watch

  • Active Wallets & Transactions: Are people actually engaging with the dApp?
  • Gas Fees & Network Congestion: More usage = higher demand.
  • NFT & Gaming Trends: Which platforms are seeing real player/user engagement?

🛠 How to Track It

  • Dapp Activity: Use DappRadar and Nansen to track active wallets and transactions.
  • Gas Fees: Check Etherscan or Polygonscan—higher fees can signal increased demand.
  • NFT Marketplaces: Monitor activity on Blur, OpenSea, and Magic Eden—which chains are dominating the NFT space?

👉 Why It Matters: A project with high user activity and strong transaction volume is far more likely to succeed than one that relies solely on speculation.

dApp Migration and Chain Shifts (Power Struggles in Crypto Ecosystems)

Blockchains are competitive ecosystems. If projects start migrating from one chain to another, it’s a clear signal of shifting dominance.

🔥 What to Watch

  • Which dApps are leaving Ethereum for L2s or Alt-L1s?
  • Cross-chain Bridges & Asset Flows: Which ecosystems are attracting liquidity?
  • Ethereum Rollups vs. Solana, BSC, Avalanche, Near, Cosmos—who’s winning the war?

🛠 How to Track It

  • TVL Shifts: Check DeFiLlama to see where capital is moving.
  • Bridge Activity: Monitor LayerZero, Wormhole, Synapse—which chains are seeing increased inflows?
  • Developer Migration: Check GitHub and follow project announcements—are devs leaving Ethereum for Solana? Are they abandoning L1s for L2s?

👉 Why It Matters: The strongest ecosystems attract the most innovation. If a project is leaving one chain for another, that tells you which chains are winning.

Stay Ahead of the Herd

Traders chase price action, and historically they mostly lose money to the best traders. It’s PvP. And there’s a sucker at every table.

Investors track fundamentals. And history proves diamond hands win more than paper hands. At least where fundamental value is present.

If you’re only looking at charts, you’re already late.

Watch these leading indicators, and when the herd finally catches on, you’ll already be positioned.

MichaelHeadshot
Michael Hearne

I’m a serial entrepreneur, and I’ve spent the last 15 years taking companies to new levels, breaking the boundaries of innovation, and triumphing over adversity. My wife, Victoria, and I started our first business in a 2-bed/1-bath apartment with 4 kids, next to a crackhouse. We pushed through setbacks and failures to lift our family out of poverty. Along the way, I’ve learned that my struggles make me stronger. And that being the best version of me is the greatest contribution I can give to the world. It makes me a better husband, and father. It improves my health, energy, and my capacity to serve others. And it has allowed me to build businesses that make the world a better place. Today, I work for passion, to make a difference, and solve real problems in the real world through my business ventures. This little site is where I share the things I’ve learned, and am still learning, on my journey.